Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 22.535567 24.710464 27.147903 30.113445 33.668511 37.853443 43.247345
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 19.382495 22.177569 25.557864 30.055838 36.068509 44.137944 56.419815
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.337122 20.464413 24.469626 30.195538 38.604622 51.385685 74.665519
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.712458 18.973404 23.332666 29.925643 40.399968 58.231053 97.391135
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.472156 17.791466 22.383802 29.662765 42.053867 65.549557 128.893840
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.489085 16.826974 21.578221 29.417221 43.613832 73.489731 175.062278
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.704662 16.048091 20.926119 29.267554 45.270548 82.657798 250.786329
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.932232 15.209220 20.077134 28.626623 45.777213 89.468174 350.533515
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.667967 15.085093 20.308452 29.890614 50.629220 112.671737 910.182656
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 11.127925 14.498484 19.732343 29.572500 51.842833 125.764876 2487.395692
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.719592 14.080643 19.387667 29.634127 54.013229 145.821410 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.390611 13.760227 19.171280 29.908436 56.856622 174.608927 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 10.060829 13.423643 18.908787 30.077840 59.616673 211.534684 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.692462 13.003097 18.465535 29.805333 61.033934 245.871055 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.400166 12.687706 18.182022 29.840304 63.499845 303.108465 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.084480 12.316161 17.768304 29.527478 64.734096 359.078044 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.798282 11.978028 17.390552 29.247745 66.034345 433.610750 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.537456 11.668804 17.044148 28.997240 67.401925 536.668113 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.307616 11.400109 16.754612 28.846071 69.158384 701.962174 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 8.036617 11.050319 16.291010 28.218154 68.750070 807.994246 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.996054 11.087642 16.563195 29.450267 77.146081 2426.317105 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.788020 10.828686 16.246285 29.139412 78.283024 4580.073903 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.631286 10.651544 16.078289 29.199254 81.410652 48291.040624 NaN